Joined

·
1,330 Posts

From now on, I'll only update it once a year, and start a new thread.

In 2019, four new players were added to the list. Three entered because they won a Masters, and Tsitsipas because of the ATP finals title.

Dominic Thiem (48th place)

Stefanos Tsitsipas (80th place)

Daniil Medvedev (84th place)

Fabio Fognini (119th place)

Methodology follows the first table.

GOAT list - all surfaces (active players are highlighted in green):

**Methodology:**

The focus was to try and be as objective as humanly possible.

1. Screening: only players who have won at least 1 grand slam, or 1 Masters 10000, an ATP finals title, or an Olympic Gold Medal are screened in.

2. Criteria were decided such that they were 1) generally recognized as important records, and 2) unambiguously positive/good (example: number of weeks in 2nd place doesn't count as unambiguously good, because 2nd place isn't as good as first), 3) not too nichey (number of slams won without losing a set is somewhat nichey), 4) not based on timing at all (e.g. no number of consecutive titles, or CYGS) and 5) in the Open Era.

3. Two lists are compiled with all the criteria, and each player's score.

4. There are 5 GOAT lists (a total one, and one for each surface, as well as one BOAT list:

GOAT lists: The first list, which I am calling the "GOAT" list, measures players' greatness mostly based on their achievements, putting a lot of weight on Grand Slams and other big titles. This is done by surface - so there are 5 of these lists. There is one overall list, and one for each surface (hard courts, clay, grass, and carpet)

BOAT list: The aim is measure who the best player of all time was. Compared with the GOAT list, the BOAT list puts far less emphasis on achievements, and more on statistics. Here, I use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compute a score for each player. The theory here is that the first principal component captures the biggest common factor that makes a player excel in all the criteria.

**Criteria for GOAT list:**

Number of Grand Slams: 50 points

Number of World Tour Finals: 25 points

Number of Olympic Gold Medals: 25 points

Number of Masters 1000: 10 points

Number of ATP 500 tournaments: 4 points

Number of ATP 250 tournaments: 2 points

Peak Elo rating: 50 points per every standard deviation above the minimum (approximately 50 GOAT points per 135 Elo ranking points above the minimum of 1910)

Winning percentage in Grand Slams: 50 points per standard deviation above the minimum

Winning percentage against Top 5 players: 50 points per standard deviation above the minimum

Total weeks at Number 1: 1 point per week

Number 1 bonus: 50 bonus points to any player who has ever been Number 1

PS: note that for the lists by surface, there are a couple of methodological differences compared with the overall GOAT list. First, there are no ATP rankings by surface, so to compute the weeks at number 1 by surface, I use the Elo rankings provided by Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Rankings Table. The second difference is that instead of using the winning percentage in Grand Slams, I use the winning percentage in Big Titles - that's mainly because the Carpet surface never had a Grand Slam, so I wanted to keep things consistent.

Here are the tables by surface:

**HARD COURT GOAT:**

**CLAY COURT GOAT:**

**GRASS COURT GOAT:**

**CARPET COURT GOAT:**

And now for the BOAT list,

Criteria:

Number of Big titles (GS, WTF, Masters, Olympic Golds)

Peak Elo rating

Winning percentage in Grand Slams

Winning percentage against Top 5 players

Results:

**The BOAT list:**

If you spot a mistake, please let me know.

All data are taken from Ultimate Tennis Statistics, so thank you to them!